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decision theory | A Wisdom Archive on decision theory |  | decision theory A selection of articles related to decision theory |  |
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decision theory, Decision theory - Complex decisions, Decision theory - Normative and descriptive decision theory, Decision theory - Paradox of choice, Decision theory - What kinds of decisions need a theory?, Decision theory - Alternatives to Probability, Decision theory - Choice between incommensurable commodities, Decision theory - Choice under uncertainty, Decision theory - Intertemporal choice, Decision theory - Pascal's Wager, Decision theory - Social decisions, Paul Goodwin and George Wright, Decision Analysis for Management Judgment, 3rd edition. Chichester: Wiley, 2004 ISBN 0-470-86108-8 (covers both normative and descriptive theory), Robert Clemen. Making Hard Decisions: An Introduction to Decision Analysis, 2nd edition. Belmont CA: Duxbury Press, 1996. (covers normative decision theory), D.W. North. "A tutorial introduction to decision theory". IEEE Trans. Systems Science and Cybernetics, 4(3), 1968. Reprinted in Shafer & Pearl. (also about normative decision theory), Glenn Shafer and Judea Pearl, editors. Readings in uncertain reasoning. Morgan Kaufmann, San Mateo, CA, 1990., Howard Raiffa Decision Analysis: Introductory Readings on Choices Under Uncertainty. McGraw Hill. 1997. ISBN 0-07-052579-X, Morris De Groot Optimal Statistical Decisions. Wiley Classics Library. 2004. (Originally published 1970.) ISBN 0-471-68029-X., Khemani, Karan, Ignorance is Bliss: A study on how and why humans depend on recognition heuristics in social relationships, the equity markets and the brand market-place, thereby making successful decisions, 2005., J.Q. Smith Decision Analysis: A Bayesian Approach. Chapman and Hall. 1988. ISBN 0-412-27520-1, Akerlof, George A. and Janet L. YELLEN, Rational Models of Irrational Behavior, Arthur, W. Brian, Designing Economic Agents that Act like Human Agents: A Behavioral Approach to Bounded Rationality, James O. Berger Statistical Decision Theory and Bayesian Analysis. Second Edition. 1980. Springer Series in Statistics. ISBN 0-387-96098-8., Goode, Erica. (2001) In Weird Math of Choices, 6 Choices Can Beat 600. The New York Times. Retrieved May 16, 2005., Anderson, Barry F. The Three Secrets of Wise Decision Making. Single Reef Press. 2002. ISBN 0-9722177-0-3.
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ARTICLES RELATED TO decision theory |  |  |  | decision theory: Encyclopedia II - Decision theory - What kinds of decisions need a theory?Decision theory is only relevant in decisions that are difficult for some reason. A few types of decision have attracted particular attention:
riskless choice between incommensurable commodities
choice under uncertainty
intertemporal choice
social decisions
Decision theory - Choice between incommensurable commodities.
This area is concerned with the decision whether to have, say, one ton of guns and 3 tons of butter, or 2 tons of guns and 1 ton of butter. This ...
See also:Decision theory, Decision theory - Normative and descriptive decision theory, Decision theory - What kinds of decisions need a theory?, Decision theory - Choice between incommensurable commodities, Decision theory - Choice under uncertainty, Decision theory - Pascal's Wager, Decision theory - Alternatives to Probability, Decision theory - Intertemporal choice, Decision theory - Social decisions, Decision theory - Complex decisions, Decision theory - Paradox of choice Read more here: » Decision theory: Encyclopedia II - Decision theory - What kinds of decisions need a theory? |
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 |  |  | decision theory: Encyclopedia II - Decision theory - Normative and descriptive decision theory
Most of decision theory is normative or prescriptive, i.e. it is concerned with identifying the best decision to take, assuming an ideal decision taker who is fully informed, able to compute with perfect accuracy, and fully rational. The practical application of this prescriptive approach (how people should make decisions) is called decision analysis, and aimed at finding tools, methodologies and software to help people make better decisions. The most systematic and comprehens ...
See also:Decision theory, Decision theory - Normative and descriptive decision theory, Decision theory - What kinds of decisions need a theory?, Decision theory - Choice between incommensurable commodities, Decision theory - Choice under uncertainty, Decision theory - Pascal's Wager, Decision theory - Alternatives to Probability, Decision theory - Intertemporal choice, Decision theory - Social decisions, Decision theory - Complex decisions, Decision theory - Paradox of choice Read more here: » Decision theory: Encyclopedia II - Decision theory - Normative and descriptive decision theory |
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 |  |  | decision theory: Encyclopedia II - Computational complexity theory - Decision problemsMuch of complexity theory deals with decision problems. A decision problem is a problem where the answer is always YES/NO. For example, the problem IS-PRIME is: given an integer written in binary, return whether it is a prime number or not. A decision problem is equivalent to a language, which is a set of finite-length strings. For a given decision problem, the equivalent language is the set of all strings for which the answer is YES.
Decision problems are often considered because an arbitrary problem can always be reduc ...
See also:Computational complexity theory, Computational complexity theory - Overview, Computational complexity theory - Decision problems, Computational complexity theory - Complexity classes, Computational complexity theory - The P = NP question, Computational complexity theory - Intractability, Computational complexity theory - Notable researchers Read more here: » Computational complexity theory: Encyclopedia II - Computational complexity theory - Decision problems |
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 |  |  | decision theory: Encyclopedia II - Minimax - Minimax criterion in statistical decision theoryIn classical statistical decision theory, we have an estimator δ that is used to estimate a parameter . We also assume a risk function R(θ,δ), usually specified as the integral of a loss function. In this framework, is called minimax if it satisfies
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An alternative criterion in the decision theoretic framework is the Bayes estimator in the presence of a prior distribution Π. An esti ...
See also:Minimax, Minimax - Minimax criterion in statistical decision theory, Minimax - Minimax algorithm with alternate moves, Minimax - Minimax theorem with simultaneous moves, Minimax - Minimax in the face of uncertainty, Minimax - Minimax in non-zero-sum games, Minimax - External link Read more here: » Minimax: Encyclopedia II - Minimax - Minimax criterion in statistical decision theory |
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 |  |  | decision theory: Encyclopedia II - Minimax - Minimax in the face of uncertaintyMinimax theory has been extended to decisions where there is no other player, but where the consequences of decisions depend on unknown facts. For example, deciding to prospect for minerals entails a cost which will be wasted if the minerals are not present, but will bring major rewards if they are. One approach is to treat this as a game against Nature, and using a similar mindset as Murphy's law, take an approach which minimizes the maximum expected loss, using the same techniques as in the two-person zero-sum games.
In addition, expectiminimax trees have been developed, for two ...
See also:Minimax, Minimax - Minimax criterion in statistical decision theory, Minimax - Minimax algorithm with alternate moves, Minimax - Minimax theorem with simultaneous moves, Minimax - Minimax in the face of uncertainty, Minimax - Minimax in non-zero-sum games, Minimax - External link Read more here: » Minimax: Encyclopedia II - Minimax - Minimax in the face of uncertainty |
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 |  |  | decision theory: Encyclopedia II - Computational complexity theory - OverviewAfter the theory explaining which problems can be solved and which cannot be, it was natural to ask about the relative computational difficulty of computable functions. This is the subject matter of computational complexity.
A single "problem" is an entire set of related questions, where each question is a finite-length string. For example, the problem FACTORIZE is: given an integer written in binary, return all of the prime factors of that number. A particular question is called an instance. For example, "give the factors of the ...
See also:Computational complexity theory, Computational complexity theory - Overview, Computational complexity theory - Decision problems, Computational complexity theory - Complexity classes, Computational complexity theory - The P = NP question, Computational complexity theory - Intractability, Computational complexity theory - Notable researchers Read more here: » Computational complexity theory: Encyclopedia II - Computational complexity theory - Overview |
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 |  |  | decision theory: Encyclopedia II - Prisoner's dilemma - A similar but different gameHofstadter[2] once suggested that people often find problems such as the PD problem easier to understand when it is illustrated in the form of a simple game, or trade-off. One of several examples he used was "closed bag exchange":
Two people meet and exchange closed bags, with the understanding that one of them contains money, and the other contains a purchase. Either player can choose to honour the deal by putting into his bag wh ...
See also:Prisoner's dilemma, Prisoner's dilemma - The classical prisoner's dilemma, Prisoner's dilemma - Generalized form, Prisoner's dilemma - A similar but different game, Prisoner's dilemma - Real-life examples, Prisoner's dilemma - The iterated prisoner's dilemma, Prisoner's dilemma - Learning psychology and game theory, Prisoner's dilemma - Friend or Foe?, Prisoner's dilemma - Business decisions, Prisoner's dilemma - Notes Read more here: » Prisoner's dilemma: Encyclopedia II - Prisoner's dilemma - A similar but different game |
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 |  |  | decision theory: Encyclopedia II - Prisoner's dilemma - The iterated prisoner's dilemmaIn his book The Evolution of Cooperation (1984), Robert Axelrod explored an extension to the classical PD scenario, which he called the iterated prisoner's dilemma (IPD). In this, participants have to choose their mutual strategy again and again, and have memory of their previous encounters. Axelrod invited academic colleagues all over the world to devise computer strategies to compete in an IPD tournament. The programs that were entered varied widely in algorithmic ...
See also:Prisoner's dilemma, Prisoner's dilemma - The classical prisoner's dilemma, Prisoner's dilemma - Generalized form, Prisoner's dilemma - A similar but different game, Prisoner's dilemma - Real-life examples, Prisoner's dilemma - The iterated prisoner's dilemma, Prisoner's dilemma - Learning psychology and game theory, Prisoner's dilemma - Friend or Foe?, Prisoner's dilemma - Business decisions, Prisoner's dilemma - Notes Read more here: » Prisoner's dilemma: Encyclopedia II - Prisoner's dilemma - The iterated prisoner's dilemma |
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 |  |  | decision theory: Encyclopedia II - Prisoner's dilemma - A similar but different gameHofstadter[2] once suggested that people often find problems such as the PD problem easier to understand when it is illustrated in the form of a simple game, or trade-off. One of several examples he used was "closed bag exchange":
Two people meet and exchange closed bags, with the understanding that one of them contains money, and the other contains a purchase. Either player can choose to honour the deal by putting into his bag wh ...
See also:Prisoner's dilemma, Prisoner's dilemma - The classical prisoner's dilemma, Prisoner's dilemma - Generalised form, Prisoner's dilemma - A similar but different game, Prisoner's dilemma - Real-life examples, Prisoner's dilemma - The iterated prisoner's dilemma, Prisoner's dilemma - Learning psychology and game theory, Prisoner's dilemma - Friend or Foe?, Prisoner's dilemma - Business decisions, Prisoner's dilemma - Notes Read more here: » Prisoner's dilemma: Encyclopedia II - Prisoner's dilemma - A similar but different game |
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 |  |  | decision theory: Encyclopedia II - Prisoner's dilemma - The iterated prisoner's dilemmaIn his book The Evolution of Cooperation (1984), Robert Axelrod explored an extension to the classical PD scenario, which he called the iterated prisoner's dilemma (IPD). In this, participants have to choose their mutual strategy again and again, and have memory of their previous encounters. Axelrod invited academic colleagues all over the world to devise computer strategies to compete in an IPD tournament. The programs that were entered varied widely in algorithmic ...
See also:Prisoner's dilemma, Prisoner's dilemma - The classical prisoner's dilemma, Prisoner's dilemma - Generalised form, Prisoner's dilemma - A similar but different game, Prisoner's dilemma - Real-life examples, Prisoner's dilemma - The iterated prisoner's dilemma, Prisoner's dilemma - Learning psychology and game theory, Prisoner's dilemma - Friend or Foe?, Prisoner's dilemma - Business decisions, Prisoner's dilemma - Notes Read more here: » Prisoner's dilemma: Encyclopedia II - Prisoner's dilemma - The iterated prisoner's dilemma |
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