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decision theory

A Wisdom Archive on decision theory

decision theory

A selection of articles related to decision theory

We recommend this article: decision theory - 1, and also this: decision theory - 2.
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Decision Theory
decision theory, Decision theory - Complex decisions, Decision theory - Normative and descriptive decision theory, Decision theory - Paradox of choice, Decision theory - What kinds of decisions need a theory?, Decision theory - Alternatives to Probability, Decision theory - Choice between incommensurable commodities, Decision theory - Choice under uncertainty, Decision theory - Intertemporal choice, Decision theory - Pascal's Wager, Decision theory - Social decisions, Paul Goodwin and George Wright, Decision Analysis for Management Judgment, 3rd edition. Chichester: Wiley, 2004 ISBN 0-470-86108-8 (covers both normative and descriptive theory), Robert Clemen. Making Hard Decisions: An Introduction to Decision Analysis, 2nd edition. Belmont CA: Duxbury Press, 1996. (covers normative decision theory), D.W. North. "A tutorial introduction to decision theory". IEEE Trans. Systems Science and Cybernetics, 4(3), 1968. Reprinted in Shafer & Pearl. (also about normative decision theory), Glenn Shafer and Judea Pearl, editors. Readings in uncertain reasoning. Morgan Kaufmann, San Mateo, CA, 1990., Howard Raiffa Decision Analysis: Introductory Readings on Choices Under Uncertainty. McGraw Hill. 1997. ISBN 0-07-052579-X, Morris De Groot Optimal Statistical Decisions. Wiley Classics Library. 2004. (Originally published 1970.) ISBN 0-471-68029-X., Khemani, Karan, Ignorance is Bliss: A study on how and why humans depend on recognition heuristics in social relationships, the equity markets and the brand market-place, thereby making successful decisions, 2005., J.Q. Smith Decision Analysis: A Bayesian Approach. Chapman and Hall. 1988. ISBN 0-412-27520-1, Akerlof, George A. and Janet L. YELLEN, Rational Models of Irrational Behavior, Arthur, W. Brian, Designing Economic Agents that Act like Human Agents: A Behavioral Approach to Bounded Rationality, James O. Berger Statistical Decision Theory and Bayesian Analysis. Second Edition. 1980. Springer Series in Statistics. ISBN 0-387-96098-8., Goode, Erica. (2001) In Weird Math of Choices, 6 Choices Can Beat 600. The New York Times. Retrieved May 16, 2005., Anderson, Barry F. The Three Secrets of Wise Decision Making. Single Reef Press. 2002. ISBN 0-9722177-0-3.

ARTICLES RELATED TO decision theory

decision theory: Encyclopedia II - Decision theory - What kinds of decisions need a theory?

Decision theory is only relevant in decisions that are difficult for some reason. A few types of decision have attracted particular attention: riskless choice between incommensurable commodities choice under uncertainty intertemporal choice social decisions Decision theory - Choice between incommensurable commodities. This area is concerned with the decision whether to have, say, one ton of guns and 3 tons of butter, or 2 tons of guns and 1 ton of butter. This ...

See also:

Decision theory, Decision theory - Normative and descriptive decision theory, Decision theory - What kinds of decisions need a theory?, Decision theory - Choice between incommensurable commodities, Decision theory - Choice under uncertainty, Decision theory - Pascal's Wager, Decision theory - Alternatives to Probability, Decision theory - Intertemporal choice, Decision theory - Social decisions, Decision theory - Complex decisions, Decision theory - Paradox of choice

Read more here: » Decision theory: Encyclopedia II - Decision theory - What kinds of decisions need a theory?

decision theory: Encyclopedia II - Decision theory - Normative and descriptive decision theory
Most of decision theory is normative or prescriptive, i.e. it is concerned with identifying the best decision to take, assuming an ideal decision taker who is fully informed, able to compute with perfect accuracy, and fully rational. The practical application of this prescriptive approach (how people should make decisions) is called decision analysis, and aimed at finding tools, methodologies and software to help people make better decisions. The most systematic and comprehens ...

See also:

Decision theory, Decision theory - Normative and descriptive decision theory, Decision theory - What kinds of decisions need a theory?, Decision theory - Choice between incommensurable commodities, Decision theory - Choice under uncertainty, Decision theory - Pascal's Wager, Decision theory - Alternatives to Probability, Decision theory - Intertemporal choice, Decision theory - Social decisions, Decision theory - Complex decisions, Decision theory - Paradox of choice

Read more here: » Decision theory: Encyclopedia II - Decision theory - Normative and descriptive decision theory

decision theory: Encyclopedia II - The Dividend Decision - The free cash flow theory of dividends

Under this theory, the dividend decision is very simple. The firm simply pays out, as dividends, any cash that is surplus after it invests in all available positive net present value projects. A key criticism of this theory is that it does not explain the observed dividend policies of real-world companies. Most companies pay relatively consistent dividends from one year to the next and managers tend to prefer to pay a steadily increasing dividend rather than paying a dividend that fluctuates dramatically from one year to the next. These criticisms have le ...

See also:

The Dividend Decision, The Dividend Decision - The free cash flow theory of dividends, The Dividend Decision - Dividend clienteles, The Dividend Decision - Information signalling, The Dividend Decision - Conclusion

Read more here: » The Dividend Decision: Encyclopedia II - The Dividend Decision - The free cash flow theory of dividends

decision theory: Encyclopedia II - Computational complexity theory - Decision problems

Much of complexity theory deals with decision problems. A decision problem is a problem where the answer is always YES/NO. For example, the problem IS-PRIME is: given an integer written in binary, return whether it is a prime number or not. A decision problem is equivalent to a language, which is a set of finite-length strings. For a given decision problem, the equivalent language is the set of all strings for which the answer is YES. Decision problems are often considered because an arbitrary problem can always be reduc ...

See also:

Computational complexity theory, Computational complexity theory - Overview, Computational complexity theory - Decision problems, Computational complexity theory - Complexity classes, Computational complexity theory - The P = NP question, Computational complexity theory - Intractability, Computational complexity theory - Notable researchers

Read more here: » Computational complexity theory: Encyclopedia II - Computational complexity theory - Decision problems

decision theory: Encyclopedia II - Minimax - Minimax criterion in statistical decision theory

In classical statistical decision theory, we have an estimator δ that is used to estimate a parameter . We also assume a risk function R(θ,δ), usually specified as the integral of a loss function. In this framework, is called minimax if it satisfies . An alternative criterion in the decision theoretic framework is the Bayes estimator in the presence of a prior distribution Π. An esti ...

See also:

Minimax, Minimax - Minimax criterion in statistical decision theory, Minimax - Minimax algorithm with alternate moves, Minimax - Minimax theorem with simultaneous moves, Minimax - Minimax in the face of uncertainty, Minimax - Minimax in non-zero-sum games, Minimax - External link

Read more here: » Minimax: Encyclopedia II - Minimax - Minimax criterion in statistical decision theory

decision theory: Encyclopedia - Computational complexity theory

In computer science, computational complexity theory is the branch of the theory of computation that studies the resources required during computation to solve a given problem. The most common resources are time (how many steps it takes to solve a problem) and space (how much memory it takes). Other resources can also be considered, such as how many parallel processors are needed to solve a problem in parallel. Complexity theory differs from the computability theory, which deals with whether a problem can be solved at al ...

Including:

Read more here: » Computational complexity theory: Encyclopedia - Computational complexity theory

decision theory: Encyclopedia II - The Dividend Decision - Dividend clienteles

A particular pattern of dividend payments may suit one type of stock holder more than another. A retiree may prefer to invest in a firm that provides a consistently high dividend yield, whereas a person with a high income from employment may prefer to avoid dividends due to their high marginal tax rate on income. If clienteles exist for particular patterns of dividend payments, a firm may be able to maximise its stock price and minimise its cost of capital by catering to a particular clientele. This model may help to explain the relatively co ...

See also:

The Dividend Decision, The Dividend Decision - The free cash flow theory of dividends, The Dividend Decision - Dividend clienteles, The Dividend Decision - Information signalling, The Dividend Decision - Conclusion

Read more here: » The Dividend Decision: Encyclopedia II - The Dividend Decision - Dividend clienteles

decision theory: Encyclopedia II - The Dividend Decision - Information signalling

A model developed by Merton Miller and Kevin Rock in 1985 suggests that dividend announcements convey information to investors regarding the firm's future prospects. Many earlier studies had shown that stock prices tend to increase when an increase in dividends is announced and tend to decrease when a decrease or omission is announced. Miller and Rock pointed out that this is likely due to the information content of dividends. When investors have incomplete information about the firm (perhaps due to opaque accounting practices) they w ...

See also:

The Dividend Decision, The Dividend Decision - The free cash flow theory of dividends, The Dividend Decision - Dividend clienteles, The Dividend Decision - Information signalling, The Dividend Decision - Conclusion

Read more here: » The Dividend Decision: Encyclopedia II - The Dividend Decision - Information signalling

decision theory: Encyclopedia - Decision making

Decision making is the cognitive process of selecting a course of action from among multiple alternatives. Every decision-making produces a final choice. It can be an action or an opinion. It begins when we need to do something but we do not know what. Therefore decision-making is a reasoning process which can be rational or irrational, and can be based on explicit assumptions or tacit assumptions. Common examples include shopping, deciding what to eat, and deciding ...

Including:

Read more here: » Decision making: Encyclopedia - Decision making

decision theory: Encyclopedia II - Computational complexity theory - Complexity classes

The complexity class P is the set of decision problems that can be solved by a deterministic machine in polynomial time. This class corresponds to an intuitive idea of the problems which can be effectively solved in the worst cases. The complexity class NP is the set of decision problems that can be solved by a non-deterministic machine in polynomial time. This class contains many problems that people would like to be able to solve effectively, including the Boolean satisfiability problem, the Hamiltonian path problem and the Vertex cover problem. All the problems in this cl ...

See also:

Computational complexity theory, Computational complexity theory - Overview, Computational complexity theory - Decision problems, Computational complexity theory - Complexity classes, Computational complexity theory - The P = NP question, Computational complexity theory - Intractability, Computational complexity theory - Notable researchers

Read more here: » Computational complexity theory: Encyclopedia II - Computational complexity theory - Complexity classes

decision theory: Encyclopedia - Supply and demand

In microeconomic theory, the partial equilibrium supply and demand economic model originally developed by Alfred Marshall attempts to describe, explain, and predict changes in the price and quantity of goods sold in competitive markets. The model is only a first approximation for describing an imperfectly competitive market. It formalizes the theories used by some economists before Marshall and is one of the most fundamental models of some modern economic schools, widely used as a basic building block in a wide range of more detailed ...

Including:

Read more here: » Supply and demand: Encyclopedia - Supply and demand

decision theory: Encyclopedia II - Minimax - Minimax algorithm with alternate moves

A minimax algorithm is a recursive algorithm for choosing the next move in a two-player game. A value is associated with each position or state of the game. This value is computed by means of a position evaluation function and it indicates how good it would be for a player to reach that position. The player then makes the move that maximises the minimum value of the position resulting from the opponent's possible following moves. If it is A' ...

See also:

Minimax, Minimax - Minimax criterion in statistical decision theory, Minimax - Minimax algorithm with alternate moves, Minimax - Minimax theorem with simultaneous moves, Minimax - Minimax in the face of uncertainty, Minimax - Minimax in non-zero-sum games, Minimax - External link

Read more here: » Minimax: Encyclopedia II - Minimax - Minimax algorithm with alternate moves

decision theory: Encyclopedia II - Minimax - Minimax in the face of uncertainty

Minimax theory has been extended to decisions where there is no other player, but where the consequences of decisions depend on unknown facts. For example, deciding to prospect for minerals entails a cost which will be wasted if the minerals are not present, but will bring major rewards if they are. One approach is to treat this as a game against Nature, and using a similar mindset as Murphy's law, take an approach which minimizes the maximum expected loss, using the same techniques as in the two-person zero-sum games. In addition, expectiminimax trees have been developed, for two ...

See also:

Minimax, Minimax - Minimax criterion in statistical decision theory, Minimax - Minimax algorithm with alternate moves, Minimax - Minimax theorem with simultaneous moves, Minimax - Minimax in the face of uncertainty, Minimax - Minimax in non-zero-sum games, Minimax - External link

Read more here: » Minimax: Encyclopedia II - Minimax - Minimax in the face of uncertainty

decision theory: Encyclopedia II - Minimax - Minimax theorem with simultaneous moves

The following example of a zero-sum game, where A and B make simultaneous moves, illustrates the minimax algorithm. If each player has three choices and the payoff matrix for A is: and B has the same payoff matrix with the signs reversed (i.e. if the choices are A1 and B1 then B pays 3 to A) then the simple minimax choice for A is A2 since the worst possible result is then having to pay 1, while the simple minimax choice for B is B2 since the worst possible result is then ...

See also:

Minimax, Minimax - Minimax criterion in statistical decision theory, Minimax - Minimax algorithm with alternate moves, Minimax - Minimax theorem with simultaneous moves, Minimax - Minimax in the face of uncertainty, Minimax - Minimax in non-zero-sum games, Minimax - External link

Read more here: » Minimax: Encyclopedia II - Minimax - Minimax theorem with simultaneous moves

decision theory: Encyclopedia II - Computational complexity theory - The P = NP question

The question of whether P is the same set as NP is the most important open question in theoretical computer science. There is even a $1,000,000 prize for solving it. (See complexity classes P and NP and oracles). Questions like this motivate the concepts of hard and complete. A set of problems X is hard for a set of problems Y if every problem in Y can be transformed easily into some problem in X with the same answer. The definition of "easily" is different in different contexts. ...

See also:

Computational complexity theory, Computational complexity theory - Overview, Computational complexity theory - Decision problems, Computational complexity theory - Complexity classes, Computational complexity theory - The P = NP question, Computational complexity theory - Intractability, Computational complexity theory - Notable researchers

Read more here: » Computational complexity theory: Encyclopedia II - Computational complexity theory - The P = NP question

decision theory: Encyclopedia II - Computational complexity theory - Overview

After the theory explaining which problems can be solved and which cannot be, it was natural to ask about the relative computational difficulty of computable functions. This is the subject matter of computational complexity. A single "problem" is an entire set of related questions, where each question is a finite-length string. For example, the problem FACTORIZE is: given an integer written in binary, return all of the prime factors of that number. A particular question is called an instance. For example, "give the factors of the ...

See also:

Computational complexity theory, Computational complexity theory - Overview, Computational complexity theory - Decision problems, Computational complexity theory - Complexity classes, Computational complexity theory - The P = NP question, Computational complexity theory - Intractability, Computational complexity theory - Notable researchers

Read more here: » Computational complexity theory: Encyclopedia II - Computational complexity theory - Overview

decision theory: Encyclopedia II - Prisoner's dilemma - A similar but different game

Hofstadter[2] once suggested that people often find problems such as the PD problem easier to understand when it is illustrated in the form of a simple game, or trade-off. One of several examples he used was "closed bag exchange": Two people meet and exchange closed bags, with the understanding that one of them contains money, and the other contains a purchase. Either player can choose to honour the deal by putting into his bag wh ...

See also:

Prisoner's dilemma, Prisoner's dilemma - The classical prisoner's dilemma, Prisoner's dilemma - Generalized form, Prisoner's dilemma - A similar but different game, Prisoner's dilemma - Real-life examples, Prisoner's dilemma - The iterated prisoner's dilemma, Prisoner's dilemma - Learning psychology and game theory, Prisoner's dilemma - Friend or Foe?, Prisoner's dilemma - Business decisions, Prisoner's dilemma - Notes

Read more here: » Prisoner's dilemma: Encyclopedia II - Prisoner's dilemma - A similar but different game

decision theory: Encyclopedia II - Prisoner's dilemma - The iterated prisoner's dilemma

In his book The Evolution of Cooperation (1984), Robert Axelrod explored an extension to the classical PD scenario, which he called the iterated prisoner's dilemma (IPD). In this, participants have to choose their mutual strategy again and again, and have memory of their previous encounters. Axelrod invited academic colleagues all over the world to devise computer strategies to compete in an IPD tournament. The programs that were entered varied widely in algorithmic ...

See also:

Prisoner's dilemma, Prisoner's dilemma - The classical prisoner's dilemma, Prisoner's dilemma - Generalized form, Prisoner's dilemma - A similar but different game, Prisoner's dilemma - Real-life examples, Prisoner's dilemma - The iterated prisoner's dilemma, Prisoner's dilemma - Learning psychology and game theory, Prisoner's dilemma - Friend or Foe?, Prisoner's dilemma - Business decisions, Prisoner's dilemma - Notes

Read more here: » Prisoner's dilemma: Encyclopedia II - Prisoner's dilemma - The iterated prisoner's dilemma

decision theory: Encyclopedia II - Prisoner's dilemma - A similar but different game

Hofstadter[2] once suggested that people often find problems such as the PD problem easier to understand when it is illustrated in the form of a simple game, or trade-off. One of several examples he used was "closed bag exchange": Two people meet and exchange closed bags, with the understanding that one of them contains money, and the other contains a purchase. Either player can choose to honour the deal by putting into his bag wh ...

See also:

Prisoner's dilemma, Prisoner's dilemma - The classical prisoner's dilemma, Prisoner's dilemma - Generalised form, Prisoner's dilemma - A similar but different game, Prisoner's dilemma - Real-life examples, Prisoner's dilemma - The iterated prisoner's dilemma, Prisoner's dilemma - Learning psychology and game theory, Prisoner's dilemma - Friend or Foe?, Prisoner's dilemma - Business decisions, Prisoner's dilemma - Notes

Read more here: » Prisoner's dilemma: Encyclopedia II - Prisoner's dilemma - A similar but different game

decision theory: Encyclopedia II - Prisoner's dilemma - The iterated prisoner's dilemma

In his book The Evolution of Cooperation (1984), Robert Axelrod explored an extension to the classical PD scenario, which he called the iterated prisoner's dilemma (IPD). In this, participants have to choose their mutual strategy again and again, and have memory of their previous encounters. Axelrod invited academic colleagues all over the world to devise computer strategies to compete in an IPD tournament. The programs that were entered varied widely in algorithmic ...

See also:

Prisoner's dilemma, Prisoner's dilemma - The classical prisoner's dilemma, Prisoner's dilemma - Generalised form, Prisoner's dilemma - A similar but different game, Prisoner's dilemma - Real-life examples, Prisoner's dilemma - The iterated prisoner's dilemma, Prisoner's dilemma - Learning psychology and game theory, Prisoner's dilemma - Friend or Foe?, Prisoner's dilemma - Business decisions, Prisoner's dilemma - Notes

Read more here: » Prisoner's dilemma: Encyclopedia II - Prisoner's dilemma - The iterated prisoner's dilemma

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related to
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related to
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