Clustering illusion

Apophenia is the experience of seeing patterns or connections in random or meaningless data. The term was coined in 1958 by Klaus Conrad, who defined it as the "unmotivated seeing of connections" accompanied by a "specific experience of an abnormal meaningfulness". Conrad originally described this phenomenon in relation to the distortion of reality present in psychosis, but it has become more widely used to describe this tendency in healthy individuals without necessarily implying ...

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A conspiracy theory attempts to explain the cause of an event as a secret, and often deceptive, plot by a covert alliance rather than as an overt activity or natural occurrence. The term "conspiracy theory" is used by scholars and in popular culture to identify a type of folklore similar to an urban legend, having certain regular features, especially an explanatory narrative which is constructed with cert ...

Including:

• Conspiracy theory - Overview
• Conspiracy theory - Features
• Conspiracy theory - Origins of conspiracy theories
• Conspiracy theory - Psychological origins
• Conspiracy theory - Sociopolitical origins
• Conspiracy theory - Controversies
• Conspiracy theory - Usage
• Conspiracy theory - The truth of a conspiracy theory
• Conspiracy theory - Conspiracy theories in fiction
• Conspiracy theory - Notes
• Conspiracy theory - Regularly produce allegations of conspiracies
• Conspiracy theory - Conspiracy theories by topic or main figure
• Conspiracy theory - Assassination
• Conspiracy theory - Celebrity deaths
• Conspiracy theory - Politics-related deaths

Read more here: » Conspiracy theory: Encyclopedia - Conspiracy theory

The gambler's fallacy can be illustrated by a game in which a coin is tossed over and over again. Suppose that the coin is in fact fair, so that the chances of it coming up heads are exactly 0.5 (a half). Then the chances of it coming up heads twice in succession are 0.5×0.5=0.25 (a quarter); three times in succession, they are 0.125 (an eighth) and so on. Nothing fallacious so far; but suppose that we are in one of these states where, say, four heads have just come up in a row, and someone argues as follows: "if the next coin flippe ...

See also:

Gambler's fallacy, Gambler's fallacy - An example: coin-tossing, Gambler's fallacy - Other examples, Gambler's fallacy - Counterexamples

Read more here: » Gambler's fallacy: Encyclopedia II - Gambler's fallacy - An example: coin-tossing

Humans naturally respond to events or situations which have had an emotional impact upon them by trying to make sense of those events, typically in spiritual, moral, political, or scientific terms. Events which seem to resist such interpretation—for example, because they are, in fact, unexplainable—may provoke the inquirer to look harder for a meaning, until one is reached that is capable of offering the inquirer the required emotional satisfaction. As sociological historian Holger Herwig found in studying German explanations of W ...

See also:

Conspiracy theory, Conspiracy theory - Overview, Conspiracy theory - Features, Conspiracy theory - Origins of conspiracy theories, Conspiracy theory - Psychological origins, Conspiracy theory - Sociopolitical origins, Conspiracy theory - Controversies, Conspiracy theory - Usage, Conspiracy theory - The truth of a conspiracy theory, Conspiracy theory - Conspiracy theories in fiction, Conspiracy theory - Notes, Conspiracy theory - Regularly produce allegations of conspiracies, Conspiracy theory - Conspiracy theories by topic or main figure, Conspiracy theory - Assassination, Conspiracy theory - Celebrity deaths, Conspiracy theory - Politics-related deaths

Read more here: » Conspiracy theory: Encyclopedia II - Conspiracy theory - Origins of conspiracy theories

The real life counterexample is known as Nerd's Gullibility Fallacy -- assuming the coin indeed is fair and the gamblers are honest when it isn't the case. In real life, if a coin is tossed twenty times and each time the result has been tails, it is far more likely that the coin is forged than the game is honest. This is an example of Hume's principle: twenty times tails on row implies that it is far more likely that the premise of a fair coin is wrong and coin is forged, than that the initial premise is correct and the next toss will ...

See also:

Gambler's fallacy, Gambler's fallacy - An example: coin-tossing, Gambler's fallacy - Other examples, Gambler's fallacy - Counterexamples

Read more here: » Gambler's fallacy: Encyclopedia II - Gambler's fallacy - Counterexamples

Main article: Conspiracy theories (fictional) Conspiracies are a popular theme in several genres of fiction, notably thrillers and science fiction, primarily due to their dramatic potential: recasting complex or meaningless historical events into relatively simple morality plays, in which bad people are the cause of bad events, and good people face the relatively simple task of identifying and defeating them. Compared to the subtlety and complexity of more rigorous sociological or historical accounts of events, conspiracy theor ...

See also:

Conspiracy theory, Conspiracy theory - Overview, Conspiracy theory - Features, Conspiracy theory - Origins of conspiracy theories, Conspiracy theory - Psychological origins, Conspiracy theory - Sociopolitical origins, Conspiracy theory - Controversies, Conspiracy theory - Usage, Conspiracy theory - The truth of a conspiracy theory, Conspiracy theory - Conspiracy theories in fiction, Conspiracy theory - Notes, Conspiracy theory - Regularly produce allegations of conspiracies, Conspiracy theory - Conspiracy theories by topic or main figure, Conspiracy theory - Assassination, Conspiracy theory - Celebrity deaths, Conspiracy theory - Politics-related deaths

Read more here: » Conspiracy theory: Encyclopedia II - Conspiracy theory - Conspiracy theories in fiction

Aside from controversies over the merits of particular conspiracy claims (see catalog below), and the various differing academic opinions (above), the general category of conspiracy theory is itself a matter of some public contestation. Conspiracy theory - Usage. The term "conspiracy theory" is considered by different observers to be a neutral description for a conspiracy claim, a pejorative term used to dismiss such a claim, and a term that can be positively embraced by proponents of such a claim. ...

See also:

Conspiracy theory, Conspiracy theory - Overview, Conspiracy theory - Features, Conspiracy theory - Origins of conspiracy theories, Conspiracy theory - Psychological origins, Conspiracy theory - Sociopolitical origins, Conspiracy theory - Controversies, Conspiracy theory - Usage, Conspiracy theory - The truth of a conspiracy theory, Conspiracy theory - Conspiracy theories in fiction, Conspiracy theory - Notes, Conspiracy theory - Regularly produce allegations of conspiracies, Conspiracy theory - Conspiracy theories by topic or main figure, Conspiracy theory - Assassination, Conspiracy theory - Celebrity deaths, Conspiracy theory - Politics-related deaths

Read more here: » Conspiracy theory: Encyclopedia II - Conspiracy theory - Controversies

The term "conspiracy theory" may be a neutral descriptor for a conspiracy claim. However, conspiracy theory is also used to indicate a narrative genre that includes a broad selection of (not necessarily related) arguments for the existence of grand conspiracies, any of which might have far-reaching social and political implications if true. Many conspiracy theories are false, or lack enough verifiable evidence to be taken seriously, raising the intriguing question of what mechanisms might exist in popular culture that lead to t ...

See also:

Conspiracy theory, Conspiracy theory - Overview, Conspiracy theory - Features, Conspiracy theory - Origins of conspiracy theories, Conspiracy theory - Psychological origins, Conspiracy theory - Sociopolitical origins, Conspiracy theory - Controversies, Conspiracy theory - Usage, Conspiracy theory - The truth of a conspiracy theory, Conspiracy theory - Conspiracy theories in fiction, Conspiracy theory - Notes, Conspiracy theory - Regularly produce allegations of conspiracies, Conspiracy theory - Conspiracy theories by topic or main figure, Conspiracy theory - Assassination, Conspiracy theory - Celebrity deaths, Conspiracy theory - Politics-related deaths

Read more here: » Conspiracy theory: Encyclopedia II - Conspiracy theory - Overview