Medieval demography: Encyclopedia II - Medieval demography - Demography

Medieval demography - Demography

The population levels of Europe during the Middle Ages can be roughly categorized:

• 400-1000 stable at a low level.
• 1000-1250 population boom and expansion.
• 1250-1350 stable at very high level.
• 1350-1420 steep decline
• 1420-1470 stable at a low level.
• 1470-onward slow expansion gaining momentum in the early 16th century.

Medieval demography - 400-1000

As the ancient world came to an end there was a steep decline in population, reaching its lowest point around 542 with the bubonic plague (the Plague of Justinian, the last plague in Europe until the Black Death of the 14th century). Estimates of total population of Europe are speculative, but at the time of Charlemagne it is thought to be between 25 and 30 million, and of this 15 million are in Carolingian France. Unlike our modern image of a lone self-sufficient farmer who moves when he sees smoke from the neighbor's chimney, medieval settlements were thickly populated, with large zones of unpopulated wilderness in between. To be alone in the Middle Ages, and not part of a community, meant sure death. Crowded communities existed as islands in a sea of uncultivated wilderness.

Medieval demography - 1000-1250

In the 11th century, people began to move outward into the wilderness, in what is known as the "great clearances". During the High Middle Ages, forests and marshes were cleared and cultivated. At the same time, settlements moved beyond the traditional boundaries of the Frankish Empire to new frontiers in eastern Europe, beyond the Elbe River, tripling the size of Germany in the process. Crusaders expanded to the Crusader States, Spain was reconquered from the Moors, and the Normans colonized southern Italy. These movements and conquests are part of larger pattern of population expansion and resettlement that occurred in Europe at this time (Robert Bartlett, The Making of Europe, ISBN 0691037809).

Reasons for this expansion and colonization include an improving climate known as the Medieval warm period; the end of barbarian raids by Vikings, Magyars and Saracens; reforms of the Church in the 11th century; and the rise of Feudalism, which brought increased social stability and thus more mobility. Nobles encouraged colonization. The bonds of serfdom which tied peasants to the land began to weaken with the rise of a money economy. Land was plentiful and labor to clear and work the land was scarce, lords who owned the land found new ways to attract and keep labor. Urban centers began to emerge, able to attract serfs with the promise of freedom. As new regions were settled, both internally and externally, population naturally increased.

Medieval demography - 1250-1350

By 1300 Europe had become, some say, overpopulated. England, which had around 1 million people in 1086, was estimated to have close to 7 million. France in 1328 (which was geographically smaller than France is today) was believed to have 20 million people, which it would not surpass again until the 18th century. The region of Tuscany had 2 million people in 1300, which it would not reach again until 1850. Overall, the population of Europe is believed to have reached a peak of around 100 million. By comparison 15-member states-strong European Union in 2000 had a population of 377 million [1]. This compares to grain yields which in the 14th century were between 2:1 and 7:1 (2:1 means for every seed planted, 2 are harvested). Modern grain yields are 300:1 or more, but the population is only four times as much.

By the 14th century the frontiers had ceased to expand and internal colonization was coming to an end, but population levels remained high. Then in the 14th century a number of calamities struck. Starting with the Great Famine in 1315, then the Hundred Years War and the Black Death of 1348-1350, the population of Europe plummeted.

Medieval demography - 1350-1500

The period between 1348 and 1420 witnessed the heaviest loss. In Germany, about 40% of the named inhabitants disappeared. The population of Provence was reduced by 50% and in some regions in Tuscany 70% were lost during this period.

Historians have struggled to explain how so many could have died. There are problems with the long-standing theory that it was just caused by a medical illness (see further discussions at Black Death) and so social factors are looked at. A classic Malthusian argument has been put forward that says Europe was overcrowded with people, even in good times it was barely able to feed its population. A gradual malnutrition developed over decades lowering resistance to disease, and competition for resources meant more warfare. In short, the catastrophes were Malthusian checks on a population too large for its available resources. However, critics say that if this were true, the sudden fall in population would have endowed the survivors with abundant resources which would enable them to recover quickly. This was not the case; populations continued to fall and remained low almost to the 16th century. Thus, classic Malthusian theory does not offer a fully satisfactory explanation.

The most recent, although still tentative, explanation goes like this: by 1250, the population peaked and competition for resources meant that there was a great imbalance between property owners and workers. Rents went up, and wages sank, the distribution of wealth increased between rich and poor. The conditions of the poor became so bad, they achieved net zero population growth. These bad economic conditions of the poor aggravated the calamities of the plague because of poor living conditions and access to food and medical help. Responding to these problems required a more equitable redistribution of wealth, which did not happen right away because property owners resisted change through wage freezes. This resulted in popular uprisings, such as the Peasants' Revolt of 1381, and not until the later 15th century did the lower classes start to gain benefits. By 1500 the total population of Europe was substantially below that of 200 years earlier, but all classes overall had a higher standard of living.

Adapted from the Wikipedia article "Demography", under the G.N U Free Docmentation License. Please also see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki