Appeal to probability: Encyclopedia - Appeal to probability

Appeal to probability

The appeal to probability is a logical fallacy, often used in conjunction with other fallacies. It assumes that because something could happen, it is inevitable that it will happen. This is flawed logic, regardless of the likelihood of the event in question. The fallacy is often used to exploit paranoia.

This has the argument form:

Equivalently, using modal logic and logical connective notation:

Some examples are:

• "There are many hackers that use the internet. Therefore, if you use the internet without a firewall, it is inevitable that you will be hacked sooner or later."
• "AMD has been catching up to Intel in recent years. In a few years they will definitely take over Intel's position, and eventually put them out of business altogether."
• "When soccer becomes popular in a town, hooliganism will become a major problem. Thus, if we allow a soccer team in our town, we will be overrun by hooligans." (also a False cause fallacy)

While not considered a "true" fallacy by some (because it is rarely used by itself), the appeal to probability is a common trend in many arguments, enough for many to consider it a fallacy of itself.

The logical idea behind this fallacy is that, since the probability is very high, it is best to ACT as if it is true. Especially in the case of Example #1. This fallacy is also related to the 'umbrella joke'. If you ever forget your umbrella, that will be the one day that it actually rains.

Category: Logical fallacies

Adapted from the Wikipedia article "Appeal to probability", under the G.N U Free Docmentation License. Please also see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki